Introduction

This document provides charts for interpreting the current S2S forecast for Bangladesh at the district level relative to the climatology of each district. For each district three charts are generated:

  • Precipitation: this shows the climatology of the weekly precipitation sum plus the current S2S forecast for precipitation plotted as circles.

  • Mean maximum temperature: this shows the climatology of the weekly mean maximum temperature plus the current S2S forecast for maximum temperature plotted as circles.

  • Mean minimum temperature: this shows the climatology of the weekly mean minimum temperature plus the current S2S forecast for minimum temperature plotted as circles.

The interpretation of the climatology is as follows: The thick line in the centre of the chart represents the median value. The lines above and below the median represent the first (Q1) and third (Q3) quartiles. The areas from Q1 to the median and from the median to Q3 have the same color and represent 50% of the data points in the climatology. The lower and upper lines represent the minimum and maximum of the distributions and the areas in between are filled with different colours to indicate that values in this range are more extreme.

The current S2S forecast (details are given under “Forecast metadata”) are added to the climatology as circles. By comparing the current forecast against the climatology it is immediately clear how that forecast relates to the climatology: is the average, extremely high or low. Moreover, the interpretation can be made for the coming four weeks as well.

See also the example below.

_images/example.png

By default, the figures are provided as Scaleable Vector Graphics (SVG) which are compact, fast, scale well within a web browser and do not require an internet connection. Alternatively, each figure is available as an an interactive HTML element that can be zoomed and exported to other data formats. However, this requires an internet connection and is relatively slow. Therefore by default the SVG figures are used.

Background and financing

Jointly prepared by Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Bangladesh Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Weather Impact-Netherlands, Wageningen Environmental Research and Digital Innovation for Impact (Dii-Dhaka) under BWCSRP (Component-C), supported by the World Bank.